How to make smart sports bets

Step 1 Shop how to make smart sports bets the best lines. · Step 2 Make bets based on the odds. · Step 3 Don't be afraid to bet on the underdog. First come up with a base betting unit. Then write down a common Labouchere sequence like To choose your bet amount, take the first and. 1. Manage Your Bankroll and Create a Unit Size · 2. Understand Your Risk Tolerance and Goals as a Bettor · 3. Develop Realistic Expectations · 4. Keep a Record of. Top Sports Betting Strategies To Follow · Shop Shop Shop · Filter Through the Noise · Stick to Your Strengths, You Don't Have To Bet the Board.

Making Smart Sports Bets: A Strategic Guide

Sports betting can be exhilarating but is also a battleground where wit, strategy, and precise predictions reign supreme. To become a successful sports bettor, one must blend passion with analysis, insight with pragmatism. Here's a strategic guide to help you make savvy choices and increase your odds of winning consistently.

The Foundation: Research, Research, Research

Research forms the bedrock of intelligent sports betting. Dive deep into team statistics, player performances, injuries, and head-to-head matchups. Analyzing historical data and trends can uncover valuable insights that inform your betting decisions. Remember, informed bets are winning bets.

Bankroll Management: Protect Your Assets

Effective bankroll management is key to long-term success in sports betting. Establish a budget and stick to it. Avoid chasing losses by wagering more than you can afford. Dividing your bankroll into units ensures consistency and mitigates the risks of significant losses in a single bet.

The Odds Game: Seek Value

Understanding odds and seeking out value is essential for smart sports betting. Look beyond the obvious favorites and underdogs; identify discrepancies between your predicted outcome and the odds offered by bookmakers. Embrace the concept of value betting, where the odds offered are higher than the probability of the outcome occurring.

Emotions Aside: Think Rationally

Successful sports betting demands a rational mindset and emotional discipline. Avoid betting on your favorite team out of sheer loyalty. Objectivity and logic should drive your decisions, not emotional biases. Overcoming personal preferences and acknowledging your weaknesses lead to wiser betting choices.

Timing Is Everything: Capitalize on Market Dynamics

Timing plays a crucial role in maximizing your betting potential. Monitor line movements, stay updated on team news, and recognize how external factors can influence odds. Capitalize on favorable odds before they shift, but also be patient and strategic to exploit optimal betting opportunities.

Conclusion

Smart sports betting is an art that combines knowledge, foresight, and mindful execution. By conducting thorough research, managing your bankroll wisely, identifying value bets, maintaining emotional composure, and seizing timing advantages, you can boost your chances of achieving sustained success in the dynamic world of sports betting.

Sports Betting Strategies That Work – Your 2024 Guide

Winning Strategies: Mastering the Art of Sports Betting

This is especially true in smaller non-marquee leagues. Think of the point spread like a secondary competition for teams when it comes to gambling. Good bankroll management is all about protecting yourself from the inevitable cold streaks that come with any kind of gambling from time to time. These might sound like small numbers but if you want to grow your roll over time and avoid going broke, this is the way to do it.

Bill Krackomberger is a strong advocate for good bankroll management. Subscribe to listen to his weekly sports betting tips. The catch is that you have to shop around to find the best deals. The same holds true for sports bets. If you are diligent about shopping lines you can find better value on your bets.

Also, by virtue of the fact that you will need to create different accounts at different books you will have the opportunity to take advantage of the different promotional offers upon sign-up and first deposit. Besides that, discover the best sports betting mobile apps and top-rated sports betting sites to get started.

Team and player performance in sports can be really streaky. You can take advantage of hot and cold streaks in your betting and if you can identify them faster than the oddsmakers, it presents a big opportunity. If a team beats a series of lower quality teams while playing at home it may not be the right time to jump on the bandwagon when their next game is on the road against a top opponent, for example.

Keep track of the schedule and factors that can help keep a streak alive. There are opportunities in sports betting where a punter can make a bet that is opposite to his original bet. At a Las Vegas sportsbook, a St. At the time the Cardinals were five games out of a playoff spot with 15 games to play.

A big hill to climb to even just make the playoffs. The gambler was now looking at a potentially massive payday. How to make smart sports bets But what if the Cardinals lost the World Series. He would get exactly zero. This is the perfect opportunity to hedge. By betting opposite to the original wager, he can lock in a profit.

With parlays one loss is all it takes to lose the entire parlay. This process, also known as middling, is when a punter makes an early point spread bet only to see the line move later. By exploiting the line change you can place an opposite bet to your first wager and sometimes win them both. Keep reading for an example to make it really clear. Read our full guide to betting the middle for more information.

This is because those leagues use a playoff format when it comes to home and away games. The higher seeded team plays at home for the first two games, as well as the 5th and 7th, if necessary. The zig zag theory works on two main concepts. First, home teams have a real advantage. Second, when a team is coming off a loss they generally play harder and have a statistically better chance of winning.

The zig zag theory works best when a team is at home AND coming off a loss. There are several betting systems out there that proclaim to have a secret recipe for foolproof winning. Of course, if they really worked then everyone would be rich and casinos and sportsbooks would be bankrupt. Compared to the Martingale system which only requires your last bet to win, this system needs your overall winning percentage to out-number your losses.

If you lose a bet, add the number of units you bet to the end of the sequence. When you win, cross out the first and last numbers in the sequence. Continue until all numbers in the sequence have been crossed out. The truth is, none of these systems can guarantee a win, even if they promise to do just that. If sportsbooks are offering deals that seem too good to be true, it's worth double checking if you're legitimate.

In general, we advise to sticking to proven and safe betting sites. One of the most important things both savvy punters and oddsmakers utilize is data and trend analysis software. These days there are several online options that offer these services for free or for a low fee. It takes a bit of work to learn to use them at first but once you learn how to use these tools they can be an absolute game-changer for your results.

Not only can you figure out how the most common trends are calculated and used, but you can also explore your own trend ideas and potentially find edges that have eluded the sportsbooks and other bettors. You never know what you might find. Perhaps NHL road underdogs, after long homestands, who start their back up goalie in the first game of a back-to-back are much more likely to cover the puckline.

It may seem random, but with data analysis tools you can find real trends that can help guide your bets. For example, over the past 13 seasons the underdog has covered the spread It measures how teams perform against the point spread, not just against their opponents. Check out our best NFL picks against the spread to get an advantage over the sportsbooks.

That is an incredible stat to ponder. It makes it seem that no matter what strategy you employ, your point spread bet is a coin toss. That extra three percent represents a massive difference for your bottom line so look for those opportunities at NFL betting sites and apps. One advanced strategy punters use at the start of a new NFL season is the Pythagorean wins strategy, which is a name you might remember from math class in school.

It takes into account the amount of points scored by a team and compares it to the number of points scored against them. Amazingly, from to the Super Bowl was won 11 out of 16 times by the team that had the highest Pythagorean wins stat, not just the most outright victories. Instead of doing the math yourself, you can find the stats for all teams posted at the beginning of the season.

You can also find free calculators online that will do the math for you. This is just one example of a more advanced strategy used to wager on the NFL. In basketball, one advanced strategy we really like is going against the grain and betting against the public. This works especially well with point totals and teams that put up big numbers at home. The common bettor will remember how a team performs at home, how quick their pace of play is, how many points they give up to the opposition, and then simply bet the same way the next time that team plays at home.

This means you can often get a great price betting the underdog or the under on totals in these spots. This works especially well when both teams have had busy workloads or are on the tail end of a back-to-back. Check if your state has legal NBA betting on our guide. How does.sports betting work If it does, head on over to one of the many NBA betting sites and you're good to go. Statistics have shown that when a total is higher 8.

This is also a viable option when the underdog has lost their previous game and the public is swayed by a small sample size and the odds have increased. For more on baseball betting strategy, check out our full guide on how to bet on the MLB. Check if your state has legal MLB betting. There are lots of reasons hockey is a great sport for more advanced betting strategies.

There are also lots of edges for gamblers willing to put in the work. One common example is that the betting public for hockey tends to put too much weight on home ice advantage. This creates excellent value for those willing to bet on the road underdog. For more hockey betting tips and strategies, read our full guide on how to bet on the NHL.

The Kelly Criterion is a formula used to calculate how much to bet when the odds are in your favor. Obviously, in sports betting, it is going to be difficult to know the precise probability of success or failure of an event. However, with research and solid deduction we can make some reasonable guesses and then apply the Kelly Criterion to see how much of our bankroll to bet.

Say, for example, that you think the chances of Rafael Nadal beating Roger Federer on Clay are , and the decimal odds available at your sportsbook are 1. Some are great quality while others might steer you far wide of your target. The information you gather along the way is really what matters most. As we stated above, it is best to be a master of one field than an average Joe across the board.

Find your niche and then develop or employ strategies that work best for that sport and for the teams or players you know best. Risk-free betting offers are also a crucial decision-making point when it comes to deciding which sportsbook you want to open an account with.

Risk-free betting offers can double the number of bets you can make with your first bet. It pays to learn about risk-free betting offer so check out our guide on risk-free betting offers. For more information on the current sports betting laws in every state, check out our comprehensive guide to US legal sports betting. Betting Against the Public.

It can be hard to know when to follow the public, but in general, the latter looks for hyped events and hyped athletes to bet on. People are more likely to bet on the team or athlete they know and love than to bet on unknown athletes or smaller teams. Of course, athletes become famous from past achievements; however, these former successes do not always reflect current form.

For example, a famous tennis player comes back after an injury and is matched up with an up-and-coming talent. Backing heavy favourites is one of the most basic sports betting strategies. How to make smart sports bets It essentially requires no real skill. Favourites are favourites for a reason.

In some sports, such as tennis or boxing, favourites have ridiculously high odds of winning. This strategy may seem solid, but still comes with a lot of risk. Even though the odds of losing are small, it can be hard to win your money back when you lose. The margins can be so small, that favourite betting might not even be worth it. Remember that bookies try to minimise losses, and since so many people bet on the favourite, the odds are often unrealistically low.

Form and momentum are very important factors in determining odds. If a team has won seven games in a row, there is a high probability that they will win the eighth. Still, every team has to lose eventually, so sometimes betting on the underdog can be the smarter bet, especially if the odds are overly inflated.

All good things must come to an end — just ask Argentina, who, after enjoying an unbelievable run of 36 unbeaten matches , winning the Copa America in the process, went on to lose to Saudi Arabia in their opening match of the World Cup. An accumulator involves combining multiple selections on a single bet slip.

The odd of each individual wager are multiplied as a result, creating some great potential value. On a similar note, you may be tempted to create some slightly more complicated bets which could increase your odds without increasing the overall risk factor — this may be in the form of a system bet. To ensure that your system bet makes sense and is viable, check out our dedicated bet calculator page.

The below long-term betting strategies we have listed differ from the previous methods due to one main factor: patience. In the short term, you may find that the following scenarios may be scarce; but over a longer period of time, you will see more and more of these opportunities to exploit and find value, leading to, hopefully, more profits in the long run.

This is a very common-sense betting strategy. Outliers are odds that go against the trend. In order to find the best value, you simply look for the best odds for your bet. This involves comparing different bookies, so it is best to have multiple accounts across various betting sites.

The idea of finding the best odds for your bet is simple, but it can be a full betting strategy. Some punters have a strategy of consistently betting on outliers, regardless of the event and their knowledge of it. The reasoning behind this is that the market is usually right. Odds tend to follow the money, which in turn usually comes from smart and professional punters. By finding outliers, you can consistently find value bets.

Being patient is key in looking for outliers, as doing so may take both time and research. Doing your homework is more likely to pay off and will always be better than betting blindly without having done your due diligence beforehand. The point of arbitrage betting or arbing sometimes called sure bets or miracle bets is a rather strange and uncommon method of betting.

This type of bet requires you to bet on both outcomes of an event, in order to guarantee a profit. The best way to do this is to find bookies offering opposite odds on an event. By betting on both sides, you can win regardless of the outcome. This sounds too good to be true, and it usually is. You will have to be very fast when you find one. Hedge Betting Hedge betting is similar to arbitrage betting, since you are betting against yourself.

This can help you in various situations. Usually it involves taking advantage of movement in odds for bets you have already placed for example, in outright betting. Another example is with multiples. If you have an acca with only one leg left and you have won the previous legs, you can place a lay bet or opposite bet for the last outcome in order to guarantee a profit.

Dutching Dutching has multiple meanings, and is sometimes used as an umbrella term for any set of bets that are guaranteed to give you a profit, if you win at least one of them. This includes hedge betting and arbitrage betting. The term is also specific to horse racing , where you bet on more than one horse in a race or tournament.

As long as at least one of your horses wins or places, you will gain a profit. Dutching also involves adjusting your bet size, so you win the same amount, no matter the outcome. You can make use of our Dutching Calculator to get more insight on that strategy. Hutching Hutching is similar to Dutching. However, instead of balancing your bets, you lean towards the outcome you think is most likely.

Thus, you will win more depending on which of your bets you win. These methods of making betting decisions are vital to any punter who wants to go the extra mile ensuring that they are indeed getting the most out of their hard-earned cash. There are many ways to do so, with the simplest being actually looking up statistics of previous games to see what exactly is going on during a game of football.

ThePuntersPage has got you covered with a vast array of football statistical data which are a vital tool for any football punter. Check out our football stats centre for more. Remember, five minutes of quality research could be a winning factor.

There are various kinds of betting software that you can use to become a better punter, such as software solutions that help you identify value bets and arbing opportunities, as well as tools that help you see your overall betting record. While there are plenty of paid options for the last part, a simple Excel file can be a good start to help you keep track of your betting record.

Gathering statistics and calculating probabilities based on them is the task of any serious bettor. While you could simply trust your gut, having actual maths to back up your claim is the more profitable strategy in the long term. Two of the most commonly used models are Normal Distribution and Poisson Distribution.

One of the most important ways of predicting what an outcome will be is normal distribution. Sports results, such as number of goals scored in a game i. By calculating standard deviation and variance, you can see how likely and by how much results differ from the mean.

Poisson distribution is another way of predicting the likelihood of a game score and outcome. How good is a player compared to his peers. Many leagues have an official ranking system, though anyone can create their own. Chess uses the Elo Ratings System to create rankings based on the quality of opponents beat in official competition.

The idea is that beating a stronger opponent will give you more points than beating a weaker opponent. A similar system was adopted by FIFA in to rank different countries in order to seed them for the World Cup. You are free to create any system you want in order to rank the quality of teams or individual athletes, but Elo Ratings can be a great starting point.

Matched betting is a betting strategy which punters use to take advantage of the various bookie promotions on offer. However, it is very unpopular with online betting sites , many of which offer free bets or deposit bonuses. By taking a free bet and then placing a lay bet at an exchange betting site , or simply placing the opposite bet at a different site, you can have guaranteed profit, no matter the outcome.

Of course, bookies are on to this, which is why most free bets or welcome offers have very complicated terms, involving accumulators or requiring you to wager your bonus multiple times. Expected Goals are a useful tool in football betting sites , as well as most other ball sports sites.

Essentially, they show how well a team should have performed, based on the chances offered to them. There are plenty of advanced metrics which can help predict a match outcome. Betting on draws is often one of the best sports betting strategies, especially in football.

Most punters naively bet on their favourite team to win and ignore draws completely. Thus, there is often great value in draw betting. A staking plan is a system that tells you how much of your bankroll to place on each bet. We have already discussed the Kelly Criterion as a relevant system for sports betting.

At the same time, there are plenty of sports bettors who use staking plans that were actually designed for casino games like roulette. The Fibonacci betting system is a negative progression betting system. The idea is to increase your stake after a loss and decrease it after a win. The idea is that if you bet more after a loss, you can recuperate money that you lost on previous bets.

The bet size follows the Fibonacci sequence 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21,… , with each bet the sum of the previous two. It is a lot like the Fibonacci system, except that it is slightly more complicated. You start with writing down a sequence of numbers, with your bet always the sum of the first and last number.

If you lose, you add a number to the sequence. If you win, you remove a number from the sequence. The Martingale staking method is the easiest negative progression staking plan. Here you simply double up after a loss. Do these staking plans work. Doubling your bet after a loss to win back your loss does work in an ideal set of circumstances, which unfortunately do not exist in real life.

You would have to have an infinite bankroll, play a game with no house edge, and play at a table that has no limits on bet size. This is why these staking plans have little relevance. Looking for value and managing your bankroll makes much more sense. It is not a betting strategy itself, but it can be useful to help you identify your most successful betting strategy.

This can ultimately help you identify which bets you should focus on and which you should discard. Implementing the markets which you tend to do better add could create a positive pattern leading to more winnings. While this may not be an issue for a beginning punter, as soon as you start making a serious ROI for your bets, you need to avoid being gubbed. Punters who win too much, or use strategies like matched betting, hedge betting or arbitrage betting will often be excluded from betting promos or even have their bet size restricted.

Tipsters can be a great for finding smart bets, and are often successful punters who are so good that they are no longer accepted by bookies, or have their bets limited so they can only make a small amount of money. They usually sell their tips as a subscription service. Of course, you should be wary of fraudsters who sell bogus tips.

Here are a couple of the best betting tipsters around. Banks is renowned for his betting expertise and tips. Tony Bloom is a famous sports bettor from Britain, and is well known for making huge sums of cash from sporting events. Bloom now owns Brighton and Hove Albion football club, as well as StarLizard, which is a betting consultancy firm.

There are quite a few reasons to have multiple betting accounts. If you are planning to use hedge betting, matched betting, or even arbitrage betting, it is important or even essential to have multiple betting accounts. Bookies will not be pleased if you hedge your bets on the same site as where you place your original bets. Additionally, the risk of gubbing makes it a good idea to spread your larger bets over multiple sites.

Bookies love new customers, which is why they offer great welcome promotions. After the initial welcome offer, betting sites offer bet boosts, free bets, and several other specials, especially during a major tournament. The more bookies you are signed up to, the of these deals you'll be able to claim. A few sportsbook aggregators even let you combine bookies on a single platform.

This allows you to shop odds without the need to create multiple accounts. Any smart punter would do well to consider how bookies make their money. This gives you an insight into how they create their odds and helps you consider how you can outsmart them. Balancing the books and making sure there is an overround can be highly useful, among other betting strategies.

Overround vigourish, vig, or juice in American English is an essential key for how bookies make profit. This means that each bet you place has a margin of profit for the bookies, which is similar to the house edge in casino games. While chasing steam, fading the public and looking for outliers are universal ways of finding value in bets, there can be betting strategies as diverse as punters themselves.

Deciding who will likely win a match can be done in various mathematical, statistical, or intuitive ways. Get creative, make your own rankings, invent your own models, or simply follow your gut. As long as you have a way of finding value and a smart bankroll management strategy , you can make long-term profits!

While there are multiple valid betting strategies, every betting strategy that works has one thing in common: a way to find value in betting. Looking for value means looking for outcomes that are undervalued by bookies. Another important aspect is bankroll management. Even if you bet systematically on value bets, there is still a chance that you lose your whole bankroll.

Arbitrage betting is the best way to bet, since by betting on both outcomes, you can have a guaranteed profit. Still, arbing possibilities are hard to find, making them the holy grail of sports betting. The best bets are value bets. It only makes sense to bet if you see value in it.